Research Notes

The Australian mobile market will completely change over the next three years

– which will greatly benefit Australian consumers and any mobile operators that understand how to take advantage of the new opportunities.

A number of countries around the world have already been through the structural changes that Australia will experience over the coming two or three years. In other words Australia will most probably develop very similarly to countries like Holland, Belgium, Germany, Norway and especially Denmark.

It is the launch of the new “Discount MVNO” Amaysim in Australia that will trigger the upcoming changes. Amaysim has been created by the team that founded Simyo in Germany. KPN Mobile International and the team behind have since launched the Simyo concept in Belgium Holland, Spain and France.

Simyo is a traditional “Discount MVNO” very similar to the first Discount MVNOs CBB and Telmore that originally launched in Denmark back in the year 2000. Back then they managed to turn the whole Danish mobile market upside down in just three months, changing the way mobile telephony was priced and how customers selected and purchased their mobile traffic. Today over 25 percent of Danish mobile customers use a web-based mobile solution just like the product Amaysim will now be launching in Australia.

In practice this type of MVNO sells SIM only products using the business model; bring your own mobile phone and we will offer you cheap voice, SMS and data, using a very simple transparent pricing model that allows you as a customer to know exactly what you are using and what you are paying. The bottom line for this type of concept is basically “no more bullshit”.

Strand Consult not only has the world’s largest MVNO market research centre, we are also the single company that has published the most reports and research notes about the MVNO market and how it is developing. Back in 2003 we published the report and were the first in the world to describe to mobile operators the both positive and negative effects that the new no-frill MVNOs were having on the whole mobile market.

With the launch of Amaysim we believe that the Australian mobile market is entering a new phase and that we will see enormous changes in how Australians purchase and pay for their mobile services over the coming years. When we originally stated that the new no frill MVNOs would change the market almost 10 years ago, some people were sceptical. Today the only people who do not believe that no frill MVNOs can change the mobile market are the few people that still believe that end-users are afraid of purchasing hotels and plane tickets over the Internet. In other words if you believe that there is a future for e-commerce, you should also have faith in concepts like Amaysim.

We have no doubt that Australian mobile prices will now start decreasing and become more transparent. A very good indication of this is Vodafone’s proactive reaction with their launch of Vodafone Infinite. This could very quickly develop into a price war. Some may ask why Vodafone is acting so swiftly even before Amaysim has launched? The answer is simply that Vodafone has already experienced what companies like Amaysim can do to a mobile market in countries like Holland, Germany and especially Sweden. In Sweden Vodafone ended up selling their business to Telenor with the words “Sweden has been infected by the Scandinavian illness”. Basically Vodafone already knows that the battle over price sensitive Australian customers will be very tough in the coming years and they are therefore already now positioning themselves for battle.
We are convinced that Amaysim and similar concepts will quickly catch on in Australia. The question is not whether MVNOs will influence the Australian market, but rather which two or three MVNOs will dominate the market in the coming years? You can read more about which MVNOs usually dominate a mobile market after a number of years here:

Just three weeks ago Telmore, the mother of all Discount MVNOs, celebrated their 10th anniversary. In that connection we published a research note that explains how these types of market players over time acquire a significant position on the market . If you would like to learn more about the MVNO market and how it is developing, you should consider purchasing our 450 page report How to get success in the second generation MVNO Market: . Many of the most successful operators on the MVNO market have already purchased this report and many new MVNOs are currently using this report when developing their future business strategies.

One thing is certain, and that is that every time Strand Consult has predicted what will be happening in the MVNO area on a new market, we have always been spot-on. We have no doubt that what is currently happening in Australia over the coming weeks will significantly influence the Australian mobile market in the next 12 to 36 months.

One question we cannot answer is who will end up winning and losing in Australia. However we do know that those companies with the lowest acquisition costs in the future and those that can produce a voice minute, SMS and MB data cheaply enough will stand a good chance of winning.

Let the battle commence. We are looking forward to following the Australian market over the coming years.
More information: How to Succeed in the Second-Generation MVNO Market

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