The American Election Chapter 1: Biden out; Harris presumed Democrat nominee; resurrected Trump reboots Republican party. What it means for tech and telecom policy.

The 2024 US election is a political roller coaster, full of twists, turns, thrills, and spills, and there are still 106 days until November 5. This research note examines the official 2024 Republican (GOP—Grand Old Party) party platform. As of this writing, Vice President Kamala Harris is the presumed Democrat party nominee. Strand Consult will analyze the Democrat platform following the Democrat National Covention in Chicago which kicks off on August 19.

It can be hard to keep up with all the election developments, not just in the USA, but around the world. 2024 is an election year, and more than half of the world’s population is scheduled to vote in 2024. Four critical elections are held in the Free World in 2024: Taiwan on January 23; India in April-May; the European Parliament from 6 to 9 June; and the USA on November 5. Separately, the Russian presidential election took place on 15 to 17 March, and Vladimir Putin got his fifth term. China canceled free elections again in 2024.

Elections have consequences for tech and telecom policy, and political parties lay out their vision in their respective platforms, also called the party program, in some countries.  

Understanding American tech and telecom policy requires a recognition that it reflects federal, state, and local government actors. The American President has the Constitutional power to command the US armed forces, make treaties with other nations, appoint judges, grant pardons, sign and veto bills, and issue executive orders.  The US Executive branch has some 4 million employees (including military), and the President exercises significant power over the US federal bureaucracy by nominating or appointing some 4000 people to head 15 executive departments, hundreds of executive agencies, and other roles.

Importantly, the US government is constrained by significant checks and balances. Presidential power is circumscribed by term limits, the legislative branch (only Congress can declare war, and the Senate approves treaties and nominations), and the judiciary which rules on the legality of laws and actions.

In practical terms, US tech and telecom policy is a product and process of interactions between the three branches, state and local governance, and a multitude of non-government stakeholders. Notably, the President has significant power to point the head of agencies which conduct tech and telecom policy, though rules and behavior are defined and overseen by Congress. The courts adjudicate policy complaints. Historically and importantly, most tech and telecom policy was synthesized from both parties, with key bills being bipartisan. Though the media magnifies differences between party presidents, there are many areas of consistency across administrations, regardless of party.  For example, Trump and Biden policy on China is large consistent.   

Donald J. Trump accepted the Republican presidential nomination.

Last week former President Donald J. Trump received 2387 votes of 2500 delegates at the Republican National Convention (RNC) in Milwaukee. His formal acceptance of the nomination and subsequent unification of the GOP marks a triumph over seemingly unsurmountable obstacles including but not limited to impeachments, indictments, litigation, convictions, media vilification, and a failed assassination attempt. The convention depicted the former President as the phoenix rising from the fire of adversity, the comeback kid folk hero which plays well to the reality TV, news, and entertainment complex, and the political prophet whose potent redemption story appeals to the religious and party faithful.

The RNC’s schedule of diverse speakers and elected leaders with different ethnicities, backgrounds, and experiences reflects the evolution of the USA, the electorate, and GOP membership. The party’s transformation is detailed in Patrick Ruffini’s Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP and showcases the dynamism of multiracial families and political preferences. Simply put, voters may subscribe to multiple identities, defying the Census survey’s attempts to put people in pre-determined boxes and complicating polling and political predictions.

Holding the convention in the swing state of Wisconsin let the GOP reboot the big tent by calling on its roots from nearby Ripon, WI in 1854 founding by abolitionists, progressive Yankee Protestants, farmers, factory workers, industrialists, and former slaves like Frederick Douglass. The RNC celebrated the heartland’s rebirth with local and personal stories from suburban women, entrepreneurs, veterans, rappers, wrestlers, immigrants, family members, and the sermon of Rev. Lorenzo Sewell of Detroit’s 180 Church, praising the “millimeter miracle” that saved the former President’s life.

VP Candidate Vance is a broadband advocate.

US Senator for Ohio J.D. Vance was named as Trump’s running mate, likely to cinch a critical swing state and an attempt to pierce the blue wall in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, and Michigan with blue collar bona fides. Vance, author of the best-selling Hillbilly Elegy, praised the “the forgotten man and woman” to whom the GOP platform is dedicated.

Vance fits the bill as the veep to continue America First policies. Indeed, in just 2 years in the Senate, Vance sponsored some 60 bills and co-sponsored hundreds more. Significantly, he led a bipartisan bill to extend the Affordable Connectivity Program (ACP), a broadband voucher program of $30/month for qualifying families. Vance declared, “[t]his is exactly the type of program my family would have benefited from if I was growing up in Ohio today.”

Vance sees broadband is an integral part of a rustbelt renaissance, which includes energy production, chip manufacturing, and the “titanium economy” which relies on 5G and broadband and its capability to power automation, robotics, AI, and quantum computing. Smart factories are emerging in college towns, office parks, and suburbs. More largely, there is bipartisan Congressional support not just for ACP, but for overall reform of the $9 billion universal service fund (USF). Strand Consult describes this through various reports and research notes, detailing the business models to broaden the base of contributions to USF and consumer affordability efforts. Strand Consult tracks the significant global policymaking on this front through its Global Project for Broadband Cost Recovery.

Vance has studied the idea of Big Tech helping to pay for broadband networks. He has called for Big Tech to be held accountable in many domains and has challenged Biden trade deals, saying they would cement Big Tech monopolies. It remains to be seen whether Vance’s strong words will translate into Presidential policy. Vance, a former venture capitalist, has a formidable set of funders, whose interests appear to match up with the Emerging Technologies section described in the GOP platform, notably cryptocurrency, AI, and satellite.

The 2024 Republican Platform – the political program

Voters in elections tend to focus on topline policy issues like the economy and health care, not tech/telecom policy, which enjoys considerable bipartisan agreement and offers little to highlight differences with opponents. However, with the past three Presidents, internet regulation has proven a powerful wedge issue for both parties, one vowing to stop the government takeover of the internet while the other claims its regulation will save it. In any event, Strand Consult observes consistency with both parties between the platforms and the subsequent policies pursued in their respective administrations.

The 2024 GOP platform (the party’s program) marks an important shift and is just half the length of the 2016 platform. The 2016 platform focused on seven categories (American Dream. Constitutional Government, Natural Resources, Government Reform. Great American Families, and America Resurgent), mentioned the internet more than two dozen times, and vowed to protect Internet Freedom at the Federal Communication Commission (FCC). In 2024, the keywords “broadband”, “internet”, or “FCC” are not mentioned. Indeed, there is scant mention of any specific federal agency, company, or individual in 2024.

The 2024 platform, just 28 pages, is focused on a checklist of 20 priorities under the rubric “America First: Return to Common Sense”.  Its executive summary crystallizes the Republican party’s value proposition and make a clear distinction to Democrats’ “Stronger Together” mantra from 2016. The GOP platform pummels the current administration on the areas it perceives as weak:  inflation, the border, gas prices, stagnant wages, and ongoing conflicts in Europe and Middle East as well as a simmering Pacific.

While not stated, important implications for telecom policy could be deduced from Chapter 1, “Defeat inflation and quickly bring down all prices”. The Platform argues that inflation is a government-created problem which can be reversed by reining in wasteful spending and cutting excessive regulations. It declares, “Republicans will reinstate President Trump’s Deregulation Policies, which saved Americans $11,000 per household, and end Democrats’ regulatory onslaught that disproportionately harms low and middle-income households.”

In one fell swoop, the chapter claims that all inflation and pricing challenges are underpinned by policy on energy, federal spending, regulation, immigration, and defense. It’s a lot to unpack but nevertheless marks a powerful ideology which has broad appeal to people of low-income, investors, conservatives, and small government libertarians.

From the telecom operator’s perspective, reducing regulatory burden is a key objective for shareholders. The telecom industry is subject to excessive and expensive asymmetric regulation, which is arbitraged by internet giants to enjoy de facto free rides on networks and spectrum. Despite the challenges, broadband prices have increased less than inflation and in  many cases, declined. This is owed to the competitive US market for broadband and telecommunications, massive investment, and technological innovation.

Chapter 3 “Building the Greatest Economy in History” provides a similar wrap-up for American workers with 5 key pillars: Slashing Regulations, cutting Taxes, securing Fair Trade Deals, ensuring Reliable and Abundant Low Cost Energy, and championing Innovation. Deregulation is reiterated and is equated with stifling Jobs, Freedom, Innovation and making everything more expensive. However, this is tempered with a view that the GOP approach will implement Transparency and Common Sense in rulemaking.

Under the section “Champion Innovation and leading the world in emerging industries”, three priorities emerge, 

1. “Republicans will end Democrats’ unlawful and unAmerican Crypto crackdown and oppose the creation of a Central Bank Digital Currency, defend the right to mine Bitcoin, and ensure every American has the right to self-custody of their Digital Assets, and transact free from Government Surveillance and Control.”
2. “On Artificial Intelligence (AI) repealing Biden Executive Order on AI (expect that this issue could be a sticking point with EU), support AI Development rooted in Free Speech and Human Flourishing.”
3. “Space Commerce: create a robust Manufacturing Industry in Near Earth Orbit, send astronauts to Moon and Mars, and “enhance partnerships with the rapidly expanding Commercial Space sector to revolutionize our ability to access, live in, and develop assets in Space.”

Chapter 5 “Protect American Workers and Farmers From Unfair Trade” lays out the industrial policy: “Rebalancing Trade” (tariffs on foreign goods, reciprocal trade and prosecution of trade violations); “Strategic Independence from China” (end imports of essential goods, stop Chinese acquisition of US real estate and companies); revival of the US auto industry; domestication of critical supply chains (“ensuring National Security and Economic Stability”); buy/hire American; become a “Manufacturing Superpower.”

Trump Telecom Policy 2016 – 2020

Assessing a potential Trump second term can be informed by looking at the first. Here are some highlights noted in the Trump Administration Accomplishments from the White House archive.

• Removed regulations that threatened the development of a strong and stable internet.
• Strengthened America’s rural economy by investing over $1.3 billion to bring high-speed broadband infrastructure to rural America.
• First to name artificial intelligence, quantum information science, and 5G communications as national research and development priorities.
• Launched the American Broadband Initiative to promote the rapid deployment of broadband internet across rural America.
• Signed the Secure 5G and Beyond Act to ensure America leads the world in 5G.
• Signed landmark Prague Principles with America’s allies to advance the deployment of secure 5G telecommunications networks.

Notably much telecom policy is delegated to the FCC, an independent agency of five commissioners, generally three from the party in power and two from the other party.  FCC Chair Ajit Pai noted his achievements. His tenure is associated with a period of record- breaking broadband investment and deployment, following a downturn during the Obama Administration. Key to this development was the reversal of Title II internet regulation and the restoration of internet freedom (meaning that oversight of broadband was returned to the Federal Trade Commission, FTC, where it was since inception). There were also record-breaking 5G C-band auction spectrum which raised $81 billion. FCC auction design was recognized in 2020 Nobel prize for economics. The FCC’s 5G FAST plan included getting more spectrum into the marketplace; modernizing regulation, and speeding rollout such that there were some 420,000 mobile sites by the end of the Trump administration.

Pai also created the FCC Office of Economics and Analytics to formalize the use of economics in FCC decisions (The office was adopted on a party line vote). The resilience of US networks during the pandemic and commitment of US operators to keep Americans connected were other highlights of Pai’s FCC tenure.

Contrary to conventional regulatory wisdom which suggested that broadband providers would take advantage of the Covid crisis to harm their customers (particularly as regulators were not as their posts as such and network end users are ostensibly “captive” to the broadband provider), broadband providers continued service in the face of the crisis without increasing price or decreasing quality. Indeed, some broadband providers waived fees and promised to keep service running even if subscribers could not pay. 

There were some telecom policy missteps in the Trump administration including the proposal of a government-owned 5G network (rejected by all FCC commissioners), disagreements on spectrum among federal agencies which spilled out into the open, and the FCC giveaway of the 6 GHz band to Big Tech. By deeming these precious mid-band frequencies for unlicensed use, the FCC sacrificed tens, if not hundreds, of billions of dollars which could have been raised through spectrum usage fees and licenses. These actions happened later in the term and appeared to reflect staffing conflicts. It is likely that White House staffing discipline will be strengthen in a second Trump administration.

The FCC in a second Trump term

Most FCC policy items enjoys unanimous support from the commission; after most FCC business is straightforward and non-political like licensing, enforcements, applications, and reporting to Congress. Elections focus on the controversial items, but these are a minority of the policy. For example, network security generally follows bipartisan FCC consensus. The Pai FCC drove some 45 actions on security and public safety during the Trump administration; under Chair Rosenworcel in Biden’s term, these numbered 27 items by January. 2024. Together these 72 bipartisan items address critical issues like equipment safety and integrity, supply chain resilience, and 911 communications.

By contrast, Title II net neutrality is the most divisive issue and receives outsized media attention. The Biden FCC revived of the issue under the moniker “Safeguarding and Securing the Open Internet (SSOI)”, as it seemed that internet regulation would be more palatable if it was a public safety measure. Strand Consult, which has studied net neutrality policy across countries for more than a decade, finds that Biden innovation argument for regulation is no longer credible.

Indeed, the US enjoyed seven years without Title II on broadband, and the broadband market is demonstrably better today than in 2017. Internet speeds have increased almost 6-fold, from an average advertised download speed of 47 Mbps in 2017  to 307.73 in 2023. Fixed broadband technologies have advanced from DSL and DOCSIS 3.1/4.0 to fiber to the premises. Fixed wireless access (FWA) has emerged as a true disruptor to fixed line broadband, already accounting for 7 percent of all broadband subscriptions, and a growing number of US households are wireless only broadband. The US is now the world leader in adoption of 5G. Satellite broadband helps to close the digital divide, now the narrowest it has ever been. Prices have fallen 60 percent on the highest speeds; broadband has never been better value for money.

As for the imagined harms suggested by Title II proponents, neither the FCC nor the FTC Commission have an actual violation in the record. The one formal complaint submitted to the FCC was dismissed because it could not be documented and relied on blog hearsay. Moreover, the public interest in the topic has plummeted from some 3 million comments in 2018 to just 50,000 comments in this round.

This sharp decline of interest in 2024 suggests that the issue itself has lost relevance for traditional supporters. The wooden claims about broadband “gatekeepers” ring hollow in the lived reality of navigating Big Tech policy concerns. There are no systematic examples of broadband providers deliberately blocking or throttling websites in the record, yet the asserted harms of blocking, throttling, and prioritization describe daily activities of Big Tech. It is a bad look for the largest US internet companies to beg the FCC for preferred regulatory policies when the US government and many states have brought major antitrust actions against them. 

Indeed, a reversal or revocation of the rules may not even be needed by a second Trump administration, as the courts could rule that they are already unlawful. There is a suggestion that the Sixth Circuit could rule against the FCC on this issue, and that the Supreme Court’s recent rulings noting Chevron and the Major Questions Doctrines curbs the FCC’s rulemaking on this issue.

Carr’s MAGA Playbook

Upon taking Office, the President can name a sitting commissioner as chair. FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr appears a shoo-in for the job and has spent his entire tenure focusing on Trump-friendly policy, wisely highlighting the blue-collar broadband workforce, the need to modernize FCC regulation, and making networks more secure and resilient. Carr also penned Chapter 28 in the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025. The document which, is reissued with each administration, reflects input from dozens of conservative scholars and  and has been subject to partisan attack. Trump disavowed the document, reiterating that only he makes his policy playbook. However, Carr’s key objectives for FCC are notable and include

1. Reining in Big Tech,
2. Promoting national security
3. Unleashing economic prosperity, and
4. Ensuring FCC accountability and good governance.

Carr observes, 

“Require that Big Tech begin to contribute a fair share. Big Tech has avoided accountability in several additional ways as well. One of them concerns the FCC’s roughly $9 billion Universal Service Fund. This initiative provides the support necessary to subsidize the agency’s affordable Internet and rural connectivity programs. The FCC obtains this funding through a line-item charge that carriers add to consumers’ monthly bills for traditional telecommunications service.

“While Big Tech derives tremendous value from the federal government’s universal service investments—using those federally supported networks to deliver their products and realize significant profits—these large corporations have avoided paying a fair share into the program. On top of that, the FCC’s current funding mechanism has been on an unsustainable path. By requiring traditional telephone customers to contribute to a fund that is being used increasingly to support broadband networks, the FCC’s current approach is the regulatory equivalent of taxing horseshoes to pay for highways. To put the FCC’s universal service program on a stable footing, Congress should require Big Tech companies to start contributing an appropriate amount.”

FCC Commissioner Nathan Simington is no slouch and earned his nomination from President Trump for his pledge to hold Big Tech accountable through Section 230. Both commissioners are broadband champions, have pledged to support USF reform and to end Big Tech’s free ride on networks. 

In any event, there are two reliable Republican commissioners at the FCC to implement Trump policy, though Simington’s term ends in 2025. The timing of such a renomination offer political opportunities, notably the pairing of nomination of a commissioner from another party.  

Trump policy on China

Strand Consult has many reports on secure, trusted networks and protecting from untrusted vendors. Trump and Biden have been remarkably consistent on China. Read Strand Consult’s predictions from November 2020 when it predicted rightly that Biden would continue many Trump policies on China. In some cases, Biden may have strengthened the policies. 

The US did not originate restrictions on Chinese vendors in networks. The honor goes to a center-left Prime Minister from Australia in 2012.

For the next administration whether Republican or Democrat, Strand Consult expects continued vigilance on critical infrastructure and reducing China risk. It is important to understand that China considers Russia, North Korea and Iran its friends and that China helps  Russia wage the war against Ukraine.

Conclusion

A lot can happen between now and November, and the Democrat ticket will not be determined until next month in Chicago. American policymaking is complicated, and tech/telecom is not the top election priority. Indeed, the telecom topics are not even mentioned in the GOP platform. While deregulation may be a recurring GOP theme, the actual policy is achieved reflects mediation by the courts, Congress, political appointees, and other stakeholders. Strand Consult looks forward to reviewing the Democrat platform once it’s available.

It is important to keep the appropriate context for US policy and not to draw automatic policy conclusions for other countries. The media, which focuses on ups and downs with candidates, often fails to describe the contours of policy, leaving audiences polarized. For example, abortion policy in European countries is not only enshrined in national legislation, it is more restrictive than in many US states. The Faroe Islands, part of Denmark, have an abortion ban. Even the European Union allows member states to determine their own health and education policy. That Brussels would dictate these issues would not be acceptable to most Europeans. Hence that the 50 US states retain sovereignty over certain domains like health and education is completely in line with the EU Constitution.

In any event, there will be plenty to discuss in the coming weeks and months. Stay tuned for Chapter 2 on the Democrats.

Disclosure: Strand Consult’s EVP Roslyn Layton, PhD served on the Presidential Elect Transition Team for the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) from November 2016-January 2017 in an unpaid capacity. She testified to the US Senate Judiciary Committee in favor of the T-Mobile acquisition of Sprint in 2018, which was ultimately approved.  Strand Consult does not endorse any candidate or party.