Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?

This new free report offers a comprehensive analysis of the role of Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites in the telecommunications industry. It examines the advancements in satellite technology, the challenges in achieving service parity with terrestrial networks, and the implications for global connectivity. It explores the technical, economic, and regulatory factors shaping the deployment of Direct-to-Cell satellite services and evaluates whether these networks can complement or replace traditional cellular infrastructure.
This report aims to illuminate the forces driving developments in LEO satellite networks, the challenges they face, and how these technologies will likely shape the telecommunications industry’s future. It aims to provide inspiration and insights that can be used to frame discussions about the trends and transformations affecting connectivity on a global scale.
When reading recent media and comments on various media postings, one can quickly get the impression that satellites will replace traditional mobile networks. This narrative often simplifies a complex issue, creating the perception that satellite technology is a universal solution to global connectivity challenges. However, a more pragmatic view reveals that satellite networks like those operated by Starlink offer revolutionary opportunities but are unlikely to make terrestrial mobile networks obsolete. Instead, these technologies will coexist, each serving distinct roles in the communication ecosystem.
The Satellite Race to Reach the Phone.
Among the various players in the Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite market, Starlink, led by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, has emerged as the frontrunner. With a network of almost 7,000 satellites operating, 300+ (2nd generation or Gen2) satellites have Direct-to-Cell capabilities. SpaceX’s spectrum regulatory approach outside the U.S. has been criticized for not always adhering to local licensing frameworks (e.g., cases in India, France, and South Africa). Its reliance on spectrum that local regulators have not officially granted can create tensions with governments and local telecom providers. Starlink operates a global satellite network with thousands of satellites covering areas without always having lawful access to the spectrum on which it provides services. This is an even more significant challenge regarding the regular cellular spectrum used for traditional mobile cellular services licensed and used by local telecommunication companies. Thus, it requires, at least, the satellite operator to collaborate locally with telco operators who have the usage rights of the cellular spectrum of interest.
Despite these challenges, Starlink’s aggressive strategy and innovative technology have placed it light years ahead of competitors like Amazon’s Kuiper and Eutelsat’s OneWeb.
As of January 2025, Amazon’s Project Kuiper has not yet launched any operational satellites, including those with Direct-to-Cell (D2C) capabilities. The project is still in development, with plans to deploy a constellation of 3,236 LEO satellites to provide global broadband coverage.
One of the most remarkable aspects of Starlink’s success is its ability to build a functional global network without initial access to the necessary spectrum. This bold approach has drawn comparisons to Jeff Bezos’ Kuiper project, with Strand Consult humorously observing that while Bezos is still setting up a “burger bar,” Musk is already running an “interstellar McDonald’s“.
In the report you can read about the companies that are advancing D2C connectivity through LEO satellite constellations, aiming to connect standard mobile devices directly to satellites. Among them, AST SpaceMobile has launched five operational satellites, detailed in FCC filings, to deliver 4G and 5G services globally, with plans to expand its network with up to 243 satellites. AST SpaceMobile’s advanced phased-array antenna, BlueWalker 3, is one of the most powerful in the industry required to deliver good quality services to unmodified cellular consumer devices. Similarly, Lynk Global has deployed satellites to provide coverage in remote areas, emphasizing partnerships with telecom operators and regulatory approvals.
Geespace, part of Geely Technology Group, has launched 30 satellites in China and plans to expand to 72 by 2025, targeting global broadband and D2C capabilities. The Qianfan (“Thousand Sails”) constellation, in intent and capabilities closest to SpaceX, is another Chinese initiative that has deployed 54 satellites and aims for over 15,000 by 2030, positioning itself as a major player in satellite-based communications. US and Chinese initiatives drive significant advancements in D2C technology, integrating satellite connectivity into everyday communications and addressing global coverage challenges.
Some Takeaways.
Direct-to-Cell LEO satellite networks face considerable technology hurdles in providing services comparable to terrestrial cellular networks.
- They must overcome substantial free-space path loss and ensure uplink connectivity from low-power mobile devices with omnidirectional antennas.
- Cellular devices transmit at low power (typically 23–30 dBm), making it very challenging for uplink cellular signals to reach satellites in LEO at 300–1,200 km altitudes, particularly if the cellular device is indoor.
- Uplink signals from multiple devices within a satellite beam area can overlap, creating interference that challenges the satellite’s ability to separate and process individual uplink signals.
- Must address bandwidth limitations and efficiently reuse spectrum while minimizing interference with terrestrial and other satellite networks.
- Scaling globally may require satellites to carry varied payload configurations to accommodate regional spectrum requirements, increasing technical complexity and deployment expenses.
- Operating on terrestrial frequencies necessitates dynamic spectrum sharing and interference mitigation strategies, especially in densely populated areas, limiting coverage efficiency and capacity.
On the regulatory front, integrating D2C satellite services into existing mobile ecosystems is complex. Spectrum licensing is a key issue, as satellite operators must either share frequencies already allocated to terrestrial mobile operators or secure dedicated satellite spectrum.
- Securing access to shared or dedicated spectrum, particularly negotiating with terrestrial operators to use licensed frequencies.
- Avoiding interference between satellite and terrestrial networks requires detailed agreements and advanced spectrum management techniques.
- Navigating fragmented regulatory frameworks in Europe, where national licensing requirements vary significantly.
- The high administrative and operational burden of scaling globally diminishes economic benefits, particularly in regions where terrestrial networks already dominate.
The idea of D2C-capable satellite networks making terrestrial cellular networks obsolete is ambitious but fraught with practical limitations. While LEO satellites offer unparalleled reach in remote and underserved areas, they struggle to match terrestrial networks’ capacity, reliability, and low latency in urban and suburban environments. The high density of base stations in terrestrial networks enables them to handle far greater traffic volumes, especially for data-intensive applications.
The regulatory and operational constraints surrounding using terrestrial mobile frequencies for D2C services severely limit scalability. This fragmentation makes it difficult to achieve global coverage seamlessly and increases operational and economic inefficiencies. While D2C services hold promise for addressing connectivity gaps in remote areas, their ability to scale as a comprehensive alternative to terrestrial networks is hampered by these challenges. Unless global regulatory harmonization or innovative technical solutions emerge, D2C networks will likely remain a complementary, sub-scale solution rather than a standalone replacement for terrestrial mobile networks. Request the free report: “Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?”