LEO Satellites: The Hype, the Facts and the Hard Limits
Two free Strand Consult reports examine what satellite connectivity can – and cannot – do.
For more than 30 years, Strand Consult has focused on creating independent knowledge to help executives, policymakers and other decision-makers navigate a complex telecommunications industry. Few technologies illustrate the gap between promise and reality better than Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites. LEO satellite connectivity is attracting enormous attention—and for good reason. Direct-to-device connectivity has the potential to extend coverage to places that terrestrial networks cannot economically reach. But some of the claims being made about satellite networks go much further, suggesting that LEO satellites could ultimately replace terrestrial mobile networks altogether.
Strand Consult has examined the satellite sector and the development of direct-to-device connectivity for many years. We have published two free reports that approach the subject from complementary perspectives: one examines what LEO satellite networks can realistically deliver today and in the future; the other takes the most ambitious vision imaginable and asks what it would actually take to replace terrestrial mobile networks entirely.
The conclusion is straightforward: LEO satellites will be important to the future of connectivity, but that does not mean terrestrial networks are going away.
Beyond the Hype: The Technical and Economic Reality of LEO
The first report details what LEO can actually do. In the report Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?, Strand Consult describes that LEO satellites can indeed extend mobile connectivity—but they face fundamental limits in capacity, spectrum, economics and scalability. LEO satellites can extend connectivity to remote and underserved areas, but terrestrial networks remain better suited to dense, high-traffic environments. At the same time, D2C services face regulatory and scalability constraints when using terrestrial mobile spectrum.
This report aims to illuminate the forces driving developments in LEO satellite networks, the challenges they face, and how these technologies will likely shape the telecommunications industry’s future. It aims to provide inspiration and insights that can be used to frame discussions about the trends and transformations affecting connectivity on a global scale.
When reading recent media and comments on various media postings, one can get the impression that satellites will replace traditional mobile networks. This narrative often simplifies a complex issue, creating the perception that satellite technology is a universal solution to global connectivity challenges. However, a more pragmatic view reveals that satellite networks like those operated by Starlink offer revolutionary opportunities but are unlikely to make terrestrial mobile networks obsolete. Instead, these technologies will coexist, each serving distinct roles in the communication ecosystem.
In the report you can read about the companies that are advancing D2C connectivity through LEO satellite constellations, aiming to connect standard mobile devices directly to satellites. Among them, AST SpaceMobile has launched thirteen operational satellites, detailed in Federal Communication Commission (FCC) filings, to deliver 4G and 5G services globally, with plans to expand its network with up to 243 satellites.
The idea of D2C-capable satellite networks making terrestrial cellular networks obsolete is ambitious but fraught with practical limitations. While LEO satellites offer unparalleled reach in remote and underserved areas, they struggle to match terrestrial networks’ capacity, reliability, and low latency in urban and suburban environments. The high density of base stations in terrestrial networks enables them to handle far greater traffic volumes, especially for data-intensive applications.
The regulatory and operational constraints surrounding using terrestrial mobile frequencies for D2C services severely limit scalability. This fragmentation makes it difficult to achieve global coverage seamlessly and increases operational and economic inefficiencies. While D2C services hold promise for addressing connectivity gaps in remote areas, their ability to scale as a comprehensive alternative to terrestrial networks is hampered by these challenges. Unless global regulatory harmonization or innovative technical solutions emerge, D2C networks will likely remain a complementary, sub-scale solution rather than a standalone replacement for terrestrial mobile networks.
Beyond the Vision: The Technical and Economic Requirements of Replacement
The second report takes the opposite approach. Rather than asking whether satellite networks can replace terrestrial networks, it assumes that they do—and then asks what that future would actually require.
Imagine that it’s 2045, and the last cellular towers have just been turned off. For more than a century, connectivity had been intrinsically tied to the ground, manifested through steel towers rising across cities, antennas mounted on rooftops, fiber buried beneath streets, and an endless sequence of generational upgrades designed to justify the continued expansion of terrestrial infrastructure. That world has not disappeared because demand diminished, but rather because demand ultimately outgrew the structural and economic logic upon which it was built.
In its place, a fundamentally different model has emerged. A dense and carefully orchestrated swarm of LEO satellites now carries the full burden of global mobile communication, delivering connectivity through millions of dynamically allocated and continuously shifting beams that reach directly into ordinary mobile devices. There are no external terminals, no visible changes in user behavior, and no perceptible transition between technologies. The network itself has not vanished; it has simply moved from the ground into orbit, taking with it the complexity that once defined terrestrial telecom systems.
The report takes this extreme scenario to its logical conclusion, examining the technical, spectrum, economic and geopolitical requirements of moving the world’s mobile infrastructure from the ground into orbit. It is not a prediction. It is a thought experiment designed to establish the outer boundary of what would be required for satellites to become a genuine substitute for terrestrial mobile networks.
The report Telecom Fiction: It’s 2045, the Last Cellular Towers Have Just Been Turned Off, and LEO Satellites Are Handling All Communication, is analytical and technical in nature. It is intended to make the vision tangible, to draw the reader into a possible future, and to frame the magnitude of the transformation before engaging with the detailed system design that underpins it.
The report does not attempt to predict that this future will unfold exactly as described, nor does it argue that such an outcome is necessarily the most likely path forward. Instead, it asks a deliberately extreme question: if satellites were to fully replicate and ultimately replace terrestrial mobile infrastructure in 2045, what would that actually require? By pushing the scenario to its logical limits, the report establishes an upper bound on what is technically and economically conceivable.
From the perspective of 2025, the technical challenges are substantial. Yet even if these challenges are overcome, broader structural factors will determine the outcome. Spectrum allocation, geopolitical realities, and economic constraints are likely to shape a more fragmented and complex future than the idealized vision suggests.
This report should be read as an invitation to consider the outer limits of what is possible, rather than as a definitive statement about what will happen. It frames the scale of transformation required to move the network into the sky while acknowledging that the actual path forward is likely to be more nuanced.
Two reports. Two perspectives. One important question.
The debate about LEO satellites should not be reduced to a choice between technological enthusiasm and scepticism.
Satellites will play an increasingly important role in global connectivity. The more interesting question is where they create the greatest value—and where terrestrial networks remain indispensable. Our two reports approach that question from opposite directions. The first examines the practical realities of direct-to-device satellite connectivity and why LEO networks are more likely to complement than replace terrestrial mobile networks. The second takes the replacement scenario to its extreme: if satellites were to provide all mobile communications by 2045, what would the world have to build, deploy, regulate and finance to make that possible?
Read them together and judge the claims for yourself.
Request the two free reports “Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?” and “Telecom Fiction: It’s 2045, the last cellular towers have just been turned off, and LEO Satellites are handling all communication”
